Market Anomaly: Ramping

• Mt. Gox 2013–2014 ("Willy/Markus" bots): Reports and analyses show conspicuous buying sequences by a bot cluster correlated with strong BTC rises - a prototypical ramping profile (concentrated aggressive buys with little opposing flow).
• FTX/Alameda (FTT "price support", 2021–2022): Complaints and witness statements describe repeated FTT purchases to support price/hold thresholds - functionally ramping (price support through execution series).
• US enforcement 2024/2025 (Operation "Token Mirrors"): DoJ/SEC pursued networks that raised price and activity through manipulative trading patterns, sometimes across exchanges. (Records focus on fake volume/wash; price elevation objectives are referenced in cases.)

Context: Distinguish between court-backed facts (e.g., deliberate FTT buys) and the technical classification as a ramping profile.

1. Initiation: Repeated, staged market/sweep buys (or sells) across multiple price levels.
2. Signal: The sequence lifts/presses mid/last price; breakout/stop algorithms and trend-followers jump in.
3. Harvest: Position is reduced/flipped into the follow-through flow (exit liquidity).
4. Toolset: Pure execution series or combined with front-end tactics (e.g., thin the book via layering/spoofing).
5. Effect: Many market participants react rule-based to impulse+volume; in thin books even small prints can produce large effects.

• One-sided aggression: Buy/sell initiation ≥ 80% within a short window, steady tick ladder up/down.
• "Step-ladder" price profile: consecutive up/down ticks with similar sizes, few opposing prints.
• Depth erosion: affected side thins while spread stays stable; VWAP follows the series visibly.
• Follow-through: stop-runs/breakouts with volume continuation immediately after the push.
• Cross-venue spillover: Lead/lag ≤ 1 s to major CEXs; purely local events show weaker spillover.

• Fragmentation & 24/7 trading: uneven depth - coordinated notional has disproportionate impact.
• Altcoins/Perps: thin books + leverage/stops → small series suffice to ignite cascades.
• Limited cross-market transparency: no CAT equivalent; intent is harder to prove, so pattern detection matters.

Definition & surveillance: Supervisors (e.g. ASIC) explicitly characterise ramping as series of trades in short time producing unusual price movement. FCA cases on "share ramping" show enforcement; EU/UK-MAR addresses momentum-ignition/ramping. Market protections like volatility interruptions, LULD and systematic surveillance detect ramping earlier.

• Trading costs & risk: Late detection ⇒ entering artificially boosted moves (slippage/whipsaws).
• Systemic effects: In perps, ramping pulses can trigger liquidation chains & quant mis-signals.
• MiCA & transition: Applicable since 30.12.2024; transition until 01.07.2026 per member state - supervisors expect effective controls against behaviour-based anomalies like ramping.

Adaptive per symbol/venue vs 30-day baseline (same time of day). Required: trade tape with aggressor flag, L2 depth; ideal: multiple venues.

E3 (high) – "Series push + follow-through"

• Aggressor share ≥ 85% in a 5-sec window on one side,
• 1-sec return z-score ≥ 3.0 and depth drop ≥ p99,
• Volume follow-through in 10-sec window ≥ p95,
• Cross-venue lead/lag ≤ 1 s to ≥ 1 major reference CEX.

E2 (medium) – "Ladder without news"

• ≥ 3 sweeps in ≤ 15 s with progressive tick moves,
• Aggressor share ≥ 75% in 10-sec window,
• VWAP gap vs mid > p97 while spread remains stable.

E1 (low) – "Pre-alert"

• Series of small similar sizes (± ≤ 10%) with one-sided up/down ticks and no news context → watchlist.

• Check news/listings first: fundamental moves can look similar.
• Quote noise ≠ ramping: ramping needs executed trades; OTR spikes without fills are not ramping.
• Separate arb/real flow: broad market moves are coherent across venues; ramping often starts local.
• Calibrate altcoins/perps separately: thin depth → lower thresholds, more false positives; cross-venue checks help.
• Use quantiles, not fixed thresholds: account for intraday seasonality; combine metrics (aggressor share + depth + follow-through).

• For traders: Early detection reduces FOMO fills, improves stop placement / breakout quality, and lowers slippage.
• For operators/compliance: Evidence from aggression series, depth erosion, lead/lag & spillover supports reviews and STORs - in line with MiCA/MAR.

• ASIC – "Report 215: Australian equity market structure" (2010): ramping definition ("series of trades in short time → unusual price movement").
• FCA – "Market Watch 67/69" (2021/2022): order-book data for detection of market abuse; surveillance practice.
• FCA – Final Notices "Simon Eagle" (2010) & "Graham Betton" (2011): share-ramping cases, sanctions.
• Gandal et al. (2018): "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem" – Mt. Gox analysis (linking suspicious trading to BTC rise).
• The Guardian (29 May 2014): "Bitcoin bots bought millions in the last days of Mt Gox" – Willy/Markus bots.
• SEC – complaint filings (e.g. Caroline Ellison & Gary Wang material, Dec 2022): passages on FTT price support through purchases on platforms.
• CFTC/SEC/DoJ – Operation "Token Mirrors" (from Oct 2024): press/filings on manipulative patterns including price-inflating strategies; 2025 pleas/verdicts.
• ESMA – "Statement on MiCA Transitional Measures" (17 Dec 2024) & AMF timetable: application as of 30.12.2024, transition until 01.07.2026 possible.